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The Ministry of Finance has despaired: the ruble can not be saved any more

Опубликовано : 4-10-2017, 06:12 | Категория: World news   
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The Ministry of Finance has despaired: the ruble can not be saved any more

 

On Wednesday, July 5, the Ministry of Finance announced the parameters for carrying out operations to purchase foreign currency on the domestic market in the period from July 7 to August 4. They will amount to 74.3 million rubles, which is equivalent to 1.2 million. USA at the current exchange rate.

So few for these purposes, the department has not yet spent. The purchase of currency began with 113.1 billion rubles. In February, the previous minimum was in May - 8.5 billion rubles. In June, the market bought currencies at 45.1 billion rubles.

In total, during the previous 5 months, 307.1 billion rubles were spent, which allowed the Ministry of Finance to buy more than $ 5 billion. Acquisition of foreign currency is directed to revenues from oil and gas exceeding $ 40 per barrel, which are budgeted.

The financial department explains the fall in the volume of purchases as follows. In July, he predicts that the federal budget revenues for oil and gas will exceed the monthly estimate, which corresponds to the law on the federal budget in the amount of 11.7 billion rubles. There may be more, but the decline in oil prices in June "led to a relatively stable ruble exchange rate."

But this amount can not be sent to the market by the agency. The reason is that "the deviation of the actually received oil and gas revenues following the results of June 2017 from the valuation carried out a month earlier amounted to -11.6 billion rubles."

The negative deviation is mainly due to the fact that "the actual volume of oil and oil products exports in June was significantly lower than estimated estimates based on the basic scenario of Russia's social and economic development", which is the basis for the federal budget for 2017-2019, is explained in the Ministry of Finance .

It is not known what monthly forecasts the department uses. The forecast for the current year, which is published on the website of the Ministry of Economic Development and which forms the basis of the budget, assumes an increase in oil production by 0.7%, gas - by 0.4%. Meanwhile, the actual figures exceed the forecast (contrary to what the Ministry of Finance says).

According to the Central Dispatch Office of the fuel and energy complex, in the first half of the year, oil production increased by 0.9% (to 272.28 million tons) compared to the same period last year. Gas production as a whole jumped by 11.3% to 342.543 billion cubic meters.

Gazprom has already announced that it is increasing its forecast for the current year from 430 billion to 450 billion cubic meters. M (last year it amounted to 419 billion cubic meters).

"Taking into account the actual production of the first 6 months of 2017, we forecast the release by the end of the year at the level of annual gas production of more than 450 billion cubic meters. M, which is higher than the annual figures of the previous three years, "said the head of the company Alexey Miller.

In addition, oil and gas exports increased. The increase in supplies of "black gold" was 1.6% (3.9% - growth in supplies to foreign countries). However, in June, according to the Central Dispatch Office of the fuel and energy complex, the average daily oil export from Russia was 7% less than the May figure. But it is obvious that this could not significantly reduce the oil and gas revenues of the budget even with a certain drop in prices.

"The growth in demand for our gas continued in 2017. For six months, shipments increased by 12.4%, or 10.5 billion cubic meters. M, in comparison with the same period of 2016, "he said. In January-June, 2017, Gazprom supplied 95.2 billion cubic meters of gas to non-CIS countries.

It should be noted that the Federal Customs Service did not reduce, but increased the amount of transfer of funds to the federal budget in June compared with May and April. The Treasury received 370.94 billion rubles. Against 358.76 billion rubles. And in April - 325.63 billion

How exactly the Ministry of Finance thinks, what forecasts he holds for several months, in the department of "Gazety.Ru" could not quickly inform.

In addition, during the first half of the year the Ministry of Finance does not use the Reserve Fund to cover the budget deficit.

Data on the budget for six months did not come out, but reports appeared about the Reserve Fund, from which it follows that money was not withdrawn from it to cover the deficit in January-June. As of July 1, the Reserve Fund had 987.27 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $ 16.71 billion.

It is possible that in a few months the Ministry of Finance uses part of the additional revenues from oil and gas to cover the deficit, and not for currency interventions.

Analysts see in the explanations of the Ministry of Finance some "cunning" and are looking for rational explanations for jumps in the amount sent to the foreign exchange market.

Timur Nigmatullin, analyst of Broker's Discovery, notes that t





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